I have Xbox 360 selling ~100k in the Americas during Halo 3 launch week (the week ending Sept 29). The game will probably sell 1.8 to 2.25 million units in week one, which would mean that at least for now, people who buy the game already own an Xbox 360. However, I think 360 sales are going to stabilize at around 75k/week for the rest of the year in the Americas on the price drops/content, meaning that Halo 3 will prevent sales from dipping down as low as they had been for months on end.
I'm expecting something like a 75k-85k-105k-90k set up for the next four weeks for Xbox 360, which may put it ahead of Wii during Halo 3 launch (in the Americas).
In Europe/Australia/Others I expect a 2x boost in the UK/Ireland/Australia...and a 1.5x boost for the rest of the non-America/non-Japan world.
So...(1/3)(2)+(3/2)(2/3) ~ 1.6x stronger sales in Others ~ (5/3)(40k) ~ 67k in Others? Maybe 8k in Japan for launch.
so...180k is my maximum for Xbox 360 sales worldwide during Halo 3 launch. What do you guys see?
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
