I think Pikmin 3 is a given and has to be called a "big" release for the holidays. Given that there were two such releases last holidays (Animal Crossing and Wii Music - I know they aren't big in most gamers eyes, but for Nintendo they count as big ones) I expect them to have another big one.
Possible guesses are Kirby and Kid Icarus, since both have been rumoured lately, or a new Paper Mario since Intelligent Systems would have had the time to develop it or a new game from Retro Studios, possibly a franchise that has been kind of dead lately.
Along with those titles, I expect up to three smaller titles (games that are barely selling a million). Those seem to get announced very late (Excitebots or Disaster are examples) so it is hard to say which ones are coming. Possible games are:
F-Zero, Wave Race, 1080°, Starfox, Fire Emblem (this would reduce the chances for a Paper Mario).
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