Reggie: Wii Holiday Hardware Supplies Will Be "Unprecedented"

[shams]

Its pretty simple IMO.

Firstly - I trust Ninty's financial reports. They wouldn't overestimate figures - they just don't do it. So you can start with 22m Wiis by March '08 - unless there is some form of disaster.

And I'll say 5m sold Jan '08-March 08 (approx 1.5m/month) - maybe even 4m.

So that makes 17m-18m sold by end of this year.

Say they are currently around 12m - meaning another 5m-6m sold this year - in the remaining 3 months (Oct, Nov, Dec).

Selling around 1m/month (normal month). So 13m sold by end of October (approx).

So 4-5m sold in Nov/Dec. Approx 1.5-2.0m sold in November, and 2.5-3.5m sold in December.

Seems very reasonable, and more than likely to me.

So December will have about 1m available in each territory for Xmas. That's about 220k/week for all of December. Factor that the last week in December could sell 400k-500k units alone - and that makes 150k/week in remaining weeks.

No problem at all.

Question is - can they ship/produce even more units? Will have to see how October goes in general, but if you see 600k in US, 600k in Europe & 500k in Japan ... might be able to reach 19m-20m by end of '07. That would be truly amazing.