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Overall I disagree with your assessment that the Wii is slowing down WW like Japan. That simply is not the case.

As for 50mil by end of march, it is possible as Nintendo will have ~51m produced by then. However, it isn't likely as the biggest area for improvement is Japan and that won't really change until Monster Hunter G Pack in April.

There really isn't any big games coming out until april/may. Only game I'm interested in until May is Madworld and that won't cause a major shift in sales.