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Wii owners (excluding people like the ones found on forums) do not pay attention to what's coming out. They just wonder in and browse the shelves. So it all depends on marketing. Sega has given itself an advantage here by focusing on one specific group - 30+ males - which it can focus marketing at - like on Spike TV. This will help give HoTD, MadWorld and The Conduit larger than normal 1st week Wii sales but still, nothing to compare to what the HD systems see.

Hazzarding a guess I'd say:
HoTD:Overkill about 90-100k
MadWorld 40-60k
Conduit 60-80k