I think it the general myopia that every industry suffers from. Unfortunately the business world adopts no sense of anarchy. While the real world will abide by stagnation for only so long. So they have no capacity to anticipate radical changes, or even the reasoning beneath them. When you think about it they are relying on data that appears to flow in a nice orderly fashion, and radical changes totally invalidate that data.
What is lacking is imagination, and more importantly the desire to apply that with no limitations. For that you need a specific mindset one that is not bound by conventions, or even mathematics. A mind that can view situations from multiple angles. Looking not for the general patterns, but the smaller distortions that indicate change. There were folks forecasting these events a couple years ago.
They were ignored not for any flawed logic they sighted the same issues we sight every day. They were ignored for not having a degree, or for not having a fancy title, or working for some large company. None of those things give you instinct. None of those things give you the mindset, and you cannot buy it, earn it, or get put in a position which grants it. You either have it or you don't.
That is the problem with analysts they do not get their titles or positions based on inherent skill. They get them by doing things, and behaving in ways that guarantee they will have the wrong mindset. Seriously do we let psychotics teach kindergarten. Do we let career criminals work in banks. Do we let crack heads play doctor. So why let a ultra conformist study insanity, and try to understand it. They think they can get it. Which is not the same thing as getting it.
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