If Nintendo really thought things would be going this well, we wouldn't have supply problems in some regions almost a year after launch.
Nintendo's goal was to sell more systems than they did in the previous generation. It's a goal that the company will probably reach by the end of the March 2008 -- less than 18 months into the Wii's life cycle. The success of the system has been magnified by strong marketing, unparalleled word of mouth, and avoiding the mistakes made by the other two manufacturers out there.
As to the analysts, they're like sheep and like to provide what they feel are 'safe' bets. The Wii was certainly not a safe bet. For those monitoring the gaming public's reaction to the name and underpowered specs, the Wii was doomed to fail. And in some ways, the system has and continues to underwhelm that audience. But the bet Nintendo made with itself that it could capture a whole new group of people has paid off and then some.
It was kind of surprising that the analysts still didn't shift their forecasts sooner. With Sony delaying the PS3 to late 2007, announcing a price that shocked most at E3, and delivering fewer systems than promised for the holidays, the writing was on the wall that this generation as not going to be like the previous one. (In fact, none have ever been the same as the previous one. So why people expected this one to be the same is even more puzzling.) Maybe they'll learn in time for the next console cycle...
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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