Brawl vs. Halo 3, Predictions

[Final-Fan]

misterd said:

twesterm said:

misterd said:

twesterm said:

wemysst2 said:

leo-j said:
Brawl wont get too close to halo 3's lifetime sales that I garuntee.

Again Leo-j, what is the rationale for your answer.

What's the rationale for anyone's answer? You do know we're all guessing here right? We all can come up with the same numbers saying different things all day but in the end it's all guess work. Let him have his funny little fantasy.

Please tell me you are not that ill informed.

Those paragraphs of people EXPLAINING why one will outsell the other? Those are their rationales. Sure not everyone is offering their rationales, but Leo-J, who has earned his stripes as a fanboy, is the only one offering a guarantee (or you money back?). If one is just guessing with no supporting logic, its no better than predicting a coin flip, and Leo-J would have to be a gigantic fool to guarantee anything in that case.

Those numbers make good evidence and help back up the guesses but in the end they are still guesses. Unless you have a crystal ball that magically predicts the future, you have no right to bash someone on their prediction as long as it's not something completely insane like PSP outsells the DS next month 6 to 1. Halo 3 and SSBB are going to be very close and it's not outlandish to say one is going to beat the other no matter how you look at it.

Let's clarify our definitions of guess, shall we? According to dictionary.com com, we have the following choices: –verb (used with object) 1. to arrive at or commit oneself to an opinion about (something) without having sufficient evidence to support the opinion fully: to guess a person's weight. 2. to estimate or conjecture about correctly: to guess what a word means. 3. to think, believe, or suppose: I guess I can get there in time. –verb (used without object) 4. to form an estimate or conjecture (often fol. by at or about): We guessed at the weight of the package. 5. to estimate or conjecture correctly. –noun 6. an opinion that one reaches or to which one commits oneself on the basis of probability alone or in the absence of any evidence whatever. 7. the act of forming such an opinion: to take a guess at someone's weight. My use of "guess", and the most common use, refers specifically to definitions 1, 6, and 7 - to conjecture without evidence. Definitions 2 and 5 fail to apply at all in any case because we don't yet know whether these guesses are correct or not. A conjecture based on established information would be more clearly identified as a hypothesis or inference or logical deduction. Thus one "guess" is not equal to another. As for rights, I have absolutely every right in the world to bash someone else's ideas, and they mine. That is the down side to freedom of expression - others have the right to shoot you down. If we couldn't, there'd be very little conversation in this world. For example: Your qualifier that only SOME predictions can get bashed is absurd due to its complete subjectivity. Who is to decide what predictions are and are not insane? A year ago, the Wii selling out for 10 months would have been insane too. Now, let's be honest - you're changing the topic. Leo wasn't mocked for picking Halo3, he was mocked for guaranteeing that it would win, and it was demanded that he explain the reasoning behind his prediction. Thus he was mocked 1) for his certainty (which you would seem to agree with given your crystal ball comment), and 2) his unwillingness to explain his reasoning, if any. I think a credible case can be made for either game (though I stand by my belief that the SSBB case is much stronger simply due to a larger user base and its ability to sell in all 3 major markets), and can respect a person who put's forth his reasoning (though that doesn't mean it will go unchallenged). I also have no trouble with a person who make an uninformed guess, and admits as such. But to step out on a limb and declare with absolute certainty "I know Halo 3 will win" and then whither away when challenged... that is not worthy of respect.

Sorry, twesterm, but pwnd!