Predict lifetime sales for Forza 3 and GT5

[mrstickball]

MontanaHatchet said:

mrstickball said:
Given the fact that it'd still be more expensive than most of Gran Turismo 3's sales were made under, it'll do better - maybe an extra 1.0-1.5m copies if the price was $300 before GT5 launched in at least 2 of the 3 major territories.

Also, maybe I'm not understanding the 'casual' side of GT4, but it launched with 2.5 million units in it's first week, and sold 50% of it's lifetime sales in 4 weeks. I really don't think that's 'casual'.

Wow, spin at its finest. Halo 3 sold about 55-60% of its total sales in its first 4 weeks, but few people are arguing that it doesn't have legs or casual appeal. Of course, tons of racing enthusiasts are going to snatch it up in the first couple weeks. But more casual fans are going to pick it up over time, making up for the other 50%. In case you were wondering about the game's legs, it's currently selling 2,500 copies a week 4 years after launch. Hell, during the peak of the last holiday season, it was selling nearly 20,000 copies a week!

 

By comparison, however, GT4 was far more frontloaded than GT3. The argument goes down to that GT5 will have great initial sales, and massive legs. My argument is how can it have both with low LTD hardware sales, and low weekly sales? I'm not saying it won't have some sort of legs - I've stated I'll think it will sell 8m units, which is rather large, and will have pretty decent legs. But I think that arguing it's going to have some sort of insane legs is going against the poor performance of the Playstation 3 hardware. I don't get how you could argue 10m+ sales for the game when one of it's major markets (Japan) has barely sold enough hardware to move over 1.5m units of GT5!

Do people really think that GT5 is going to have a 40% attach ratio for it's first year of life?