Predict lifetime sales for Forza 3 and GT5

[mrstickball]

RPG said:

darthdevidem01 said:
People saying low PS3 userbase = low Gt sales

look at MGS4.....it will sell more than MGS3
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GT5 -- 10 Million

Forza 3 -- 3.5 Million

@RPG

I got my Ps2 through a GT4 bundle in UK

 

That was expected for a GT4 to have a bundle, all big franchises do however it was not a pack in like Forza 2. That is the huge difference between the two franchises, people purchased the GT bundles because they had interest in the game but the Forza 2 pack in was just in every console sold.

Edit - Stickball where are you getting Forza 2 sold 2.5 million before the bundles? I find that really hard to believe.

Ok. I'll explain FM2 numbers again:

You have 3 'stages' of Forza 2 sales. The number sold before bundles ever occurred, the number sold while it was bundled (it's not like sales magically stopped when the game was bundled. People that owned X360's still bought the game), and units sold after the bundled promotion ended.

So let's define those periods, and how we can measure them:

Pre-Bundle Sales:

The easiest to track for Forza Motorsports 2. They are easily defined at 530,000 for American, and 520,000 for PAL sales, as well as an extra 35,000 for JP sales. This yields an easy number at around 1,085,000 (VGC says 1,089,000).

During Bundle Sales:

A bit harder to track, but it's important to define such, and in this case (and almost exclusively this case), it's measurable. In the FM2 bundle promotion, there was another game that was included - Marvel: Ultimate Alliance in America, and Viva Pinata in Europe. Since both of said titles were selling very poorly before the bundling, we can subtract the difference between FM2 'sales' (which includes pack-ins) and M:UA and VP 'sales' in the proper region. The discrepancy is the minimum number of software units sold by FM2 during the bundle sales. Doing this reveals that roughly 500,000 copies of Forza Motorsports 2 was sold in between October 19th, 2007 (when the bundles began showing up on VGC), and February 22nd, 2008 (when sales of the bundles constituted under 5% of all hardware sold on a given week).

After Bundle Sales:

This one is also kind of easy to figure out, as we just need to subtract the LTD sales (4.36m) from total sales after bundles ended. I used February 22nd again for continuity (which shows around 3.7m LTD sold as of that date). That points to around 760,000 software units sold after February 2008.

Add all 3 numbers up: 1,089,000 + 500,000 + 760,000 = 2,349,000 copies of Forza 2 sold to consumers.

Now, the critical analysis of using this method is as follows:

• It assumes 0 units of the other bundle were sold inside of the bundle sales (Marvel: Ultimate Alliance and VP were selling around 5,000 units/wk when bundles began)
• It assumes 0 bundles were tracked as sold by VGC after February 22nd.

In both cases, I think it's plausible that both cancel eachother out. If anything, it should mean more units of Forza Motorsports were sold, since that'd mean around 10k units/wk were sold of the other software titles, and inflated LTD titles of comparibles. But for the sake of this argument, I'm not including them.