Hmm.
Honestly, since BRD and HD-DVD are such an expensive technology and not that much different from DVD, in the end, it sounds like HD-VMD would be the better way to go until something drastically different comes along. Because, honestly, people are splitting hairs over the "superiority" of these new formats. They're really not THAT fantastic in comparison. As a result, it's not really worth paying so much extra money for it. I'd say that most of the people who've bought either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD have it to show off. The vast majority of the market out there won't want to spend that much money for something if it's not an enormous difference in quality.
Basically, what this comes down to is this. Thinking in the general public's mindset, I'm going to want to compare the ability of DVD vs. New Format in my home usage. The general public has an ordinary SD TV in the 20-30-inch range. Granted, HD is gaining a great foothold, but it'll be years before HD is the standard. I wouldn't expect HD to have a majority foothold until at LEAST 2015, because the majority of the public is happy with SD.
Thus said, people won't be wanting anything all that expensive to replace their DVD players. They'll want something that can perform, and they MAY see themselves getting an HD TV in the future, but they won't want to shell out hundreds or thousands of dollars to get a nice HD TV + media player combo.
HD-VMD sounds like a nobrainer. Expect it to have majority support about a year or year and a half from launch.
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