Summer of 2008 I began to believe that the PS3 might catch up to and pass the sales of the 360. However, I now believe this isn't going to ever happen, and for two primary reasons:
1. Standalone Blu-ray players are falling in price faster than the PS3, making the PS3 less compelling as a standalone Blu-ray player for the mass market. This will continue as there isn't any way for Sony to sell a Blu-ray player and high-end game machine combo as cheaply as a standalone Blu-ray player without losing money, and the Blu-ray component costs are likely to fall faster than other PS3 component costs as Blu-ray devices (computer players, computer burners, standalone players, etc.) proliferate and drive manufacturing costs down.
2. Lack of BC in any PS3 model being sold. My brother has a sizeable PS2 game collection and has been waiting for the PS3 to drop to $300 to buy. When I recently told him the bad news, i.e. - that he would have to keep his PS2 around to keep playing his PS2 games, he was shocked. He has limited space in his living room entertainment center and was going to "swap-out" his PS2 with the PS3, just as he swapped-out his PS1 with his PS2 years ago. Not to mention the hassle of having to maintain two consoles just to play "PS" games. He went to the GameStop down the street and asked them before he would believe this was actually true. He planned the PS3 as his PS2 "upgrade" and to get Blu-ray thrown in for free. Friday he purchased an Xbox 360 Arcade to get Gears 2, Halo 3, etc. and is putting off a PS3 purchase indefinitely. He had to get really creative with his entertainment center arrangement just to find a place for the 360... even if Sony added BC back in, he wouldn't have room for the PS3 now considering how big the PS3 is. Perhaps if they made a slimline as small as the PS2, with BC...
The PS3 is doing well, and I expect Sony to keep producing the system for a few more years, but I'm not sure there is anything that Sony can do to get the console out of third place this generation. However, I've had a change of heart about nailing Sony to the wall on this. Yeah, they took a gamble by producing such an expensive machine, but that's what often advances the state-of-the-art in technology... taking a chance on something no one else has attempted before. Apple did it with the Mac. IBM did it with the first "PC". Etc. Etc. Hats off to Sony for pushing the competition really hard, even if it didn't win them this round.
