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@goddog

I think your wrong on the after 2012 idea for the simple reason as my table shows above.

MS will realize two very important things from this gen:
1. They only really beat Sony due to their year head start. That gave them the edge in numbers and allowed them to reduce their costs quicker and have leverage when approaching 3rd parties.

2. They believe Wii's success is totally due to the casual audience.

MS will want to combine Nintendo's success in #2 with their proven success in #1 and beat everyone to the punch. Plus, by then the 360 will begin to naturally trail off as all consoles have done in their 4/5th years.

MS will bring a new system out by fall of 2011. The only question is if Sony decides to ditch the PS3 early to ensure #1 doesn't happen to them again.