Really hard to tell. The trends in the past have been for 4-5 years with the generation leader lasting a bit longer, but this time there are lots of factors involved, of which nobody really knows how they're going to affect things.
The two HD consoles are way more expensive than any succesful piece of gaming hardware before, but HD is undeniably the future, and the companies behind them seem to be determined to support their consoles for a long time to make a profit.
The Wii is far less advanced technically, but is appealing to new gamers, and has features other than graphics that are interesting for those of us who've been gaming forever already. People who don't like the Wii are saying it'll have a shorter lifespan due to inferior graphics, while those who like it believe it'll have a much longer one because hardly anyone cares for graphics anyway. Go figure. =/
I think things will clear up a lot when we see exactly how much developer support is left for the other two after it becomes clear developing for the Wii is much more profitable, and how well quality "hardcore" games do on the Wii. Oh, and also how much the most anticipated titles increase PS3 sales, how much Halo 3 helps the 360, and most importantly how long will the sales boosts last.
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