240,000,000

[TheSource]

Alot of this depends on how big the market grows this generation. Atari - NES/MS = Market ~2x bigger (from 30 million to 65 million) NES/MS - Gen/SNES = Market 20% bigger (65 million to 80 million) Gen/SNES - Sat/PS1/N64 = Market ~2x bigger (80 million to 150 million) Sat/PS1/N64 - DC/PS2/Xbox/GC = Market 30% bigger (150 million to 195 million) - this assumes PS2 reaches 140 million shipped) Now does the DC/PS2/Xbox/GC market grow 30% to 250 million users total, or does it double to 390 million user total? Personally, I think there was alot of multi-console ownership last generation. I have yet to meet someone who owned a Dreamcast who didn't later buy a PS2, Xbox or GC. Many who own PS2 also bough GC or Xbox. There was also alot of multi-ownership in the Gen/SNES generation. So I think the rate of expansion has shown decline because people own more than one system - although the raw users playing is definitely growing. If you believe there are going to be 250 million consoles sold (30% growth), then 240 million Wiis is insane. But if you believe this generation is a repeat of the historical massive expansion...then 300 million to 400 million consoles will be sold, and the scenario Lucas mentions becomes...feasible. Personally, I see the market growing to 225 million by 2011, the question then becomes how well the consoles sell afterwards. If Wii had bigger, but NES like legs (still selling in year 10 in the USA, and still selling in 2000 in Japan), and 360 and PS3 were supported for 10 years to win back the money invested, then it is hard to see the generation expanding to under 275 million units by 2014 or 2015. A couple million units could even be sold in 2016/2017. My best estimate is the top two systems will be supported for ten years (this should be the first time two consoles reach 50 million in the same generation), and the third place system will be supported for five or six. Still, I can't realistically see the market growing past 350 million. If it got to 350 million though, Wii would certaintly have a shot at selling 250 million, and 360 and PS3 could have respectable totals of 40-60 million units each (or it could be more like a 75-25 split). My expectations though are 250-300 million consoles sold. I'd guess 150/65/35 at 250 million shipped (Wii/PS3/360) I'd guess 180/70/50 at 300 million shipped (Wii/PS3/360) The limiting factors are say...1/3 Japan, 1/3 Americas, 1/3 Others That is roughly...what 350-400 million potential customers? And it is assuming Japan-like affinity for a system (DS) is possible for other regions. I think 400 million is realistic for the end of next geneation - but not this one.