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Care to elaborate on how the Wii could possibly drop below 40% this year?

I ran the numbers. If the Wii sold half of its 2008 total in 2009, and the PS3/360 each saw a 50% YoY increase. (12.6M Wii, 17.2M 360, 15.8M PS3) The year end total for the Wii would still be 42%. (57M Wii, 44.5M 460, 35.2M PS3)

Under this scenario (50% increase for PS360 sales in 2009), Wii sales would need to drop 70% to reach your prediction.

No offense, but it sounds like you are just making up numbers without regard to facts.