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The DS hardware was around 8M when NSMB was released. NSMB did 900k first week.
But i think SMG is much better than NSMB, plus it's released in november. So i think it can sell almost the same first week.

So i'd say 900k-1M first week.

Moreover, I'm pretty sure SMG will sell A LOT in december. It will have sales a la ACWW 2005.