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Hard to say. Historically, I've found that lifespans aren't determined by "winning the generation" or by technical prowess. They seem to be linked close to a company's inability to produce a worthy successor.

Longest lifespan ever:

Atari 2600

Second longest ever:

Neo Geo

Third:

Sega Genesis

 

All three consoles were followed by relative failures, so fans stuck to the original.

 

The console with the longest lifespan this gen is likely to be from the company that releases the worst console next gen.



PC + Wii owners unite.  Our last-gen dying platforms have access to nearly every 90+ rated game this gen.  Building a PC that visually outperforms PS360 is cheap and easy.    Oct 7th 2010 predictions (made Dec 17th '08)
PC: 10^9
Wii: 10^8