PS360 owners to shift to the Wii?

[jalsonmi]

DavidValbu said:
There are many reazons why HARDCORE gamers from PS360 may shift to Wii: Dragon Quest X, Monter Hunter 3, House of the Dead Overkill, Tenchu 4, Fatal Frame 4, The Conduit, MadWorld, next Zelda ...

And the support will increase every year so expect Wii to be a hit related to hardcore games by 2010.

 

No offense, but this seems like flawed logic to me.

Zelda won't make people shift--they already would have shifted. If you're a fan of Zelda (and it is my favorite franchise, though I found TP a little disappointing), you already are in the Wii column.

Dragon Quest is the only really big franchise on that list, and hwo knows when X will see release. IX isn't even out yet. Monter Hunter does well in the portable sphere (and even there, like with Dragon Quest, primarily in Japan, where the Wii already is at its most dominant, so there's not much room to take even more of the PS share, much less the tiny tiny XBox share)--that doesn't mean it'll necessarily do well on the Wii. Monster Hunter 1 and 2 were not huge sellers by any means. And games like House of the Dead, Tenchu and Fatal Frame are also not huge sellers--they may be successful franchises, but we're not talking about a game changer a la Final Fantasy--a game that would make people want to switch over.

Madworld might be good, but the overall design makes it look a lot more like a cult game than a system seller--like pretty much everything Clover Studios did (not counting RE4, which was made before Clover came into existence).

From your list, that leaves the Conduit, which might become a huge hit and a game worth shifting consoles for, or it might not. The big question I guess is if it does something special that makes it an attractive shooter to the non-Wii crowd, or if it ends up a standard fair Halo-esque game with good Wii controls (and as we've already seen, Wii controls are not enough for people to shift consoles, or MP3 and Medol of Honor: Heroes would have both been huge games rather than modest hits).

Maybe more games, and more attractive ones, will be on the horizon, but right now the upcoming Wii line-up pales in comparison to either HD console, especially the PS3. Until (for example) Kingdom Hearts 3 finally does get made and possibly becomes a Wii game as some rumors have it, I don't think we'll see a big shift from HD users to Wii users.

And to beat everyone to the punch, no, I don't see any killer aps in any of the other announced Wii games. Perhaps the shift of these smaller franchises to the Wii will lead to bigger and bigger ones until, say, Final Fantasy XIV is announced as exclusive to the Wii, but considering how well the two HD consoles continue to sell relative to their market position (and, yes, how much better quality 3rd party games--other than rhythm games--sell on those consoles), I don't see it happening anytime soon, and thus many HD console gamers will stick to HD consoles. Wii may ending up besting PS2 in overall sales, but I seriously doubt it'll ever have the same market share as PS2.