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Alan Wake will sell better (maybe), but Heavy Rain will get the critical acclaim. I kinda think Alan Wake is past the point where it could possibly be a great game. It may be "okay".

If the devs were really talented, it would have been finished by now, rather than dragging on this long. They probably backpedaled a couple times to push the date out this far (5 years now? It was shown, and claimed to be "pretty far along" before the 360 was even released), and that's never good for the end product.