| kunaixhaku said: if any company has a chance at getting near to wii its the ps3. There are a lot of famous games on the ps2 which are still waiting to be made onto the ps3 which will attract many fans of those games to purchase a ps3. For now they are milking the ps2 but sooner or later a backwards compatibility ps3 will come and those japanese ps2 users will come swarming in to buy 1. japan has yet to be awakened. It seems like they got struck by a virus or something. |
Ehm, no.
* According to NPD 70% of US Wii owners owned a PS2. Brand loyalty is only present in a small group of hardcore fans.
* There's only one real system seller left for Sony: GT5 (In Japan also FFXIII, but really: don't expect it to sell more than 700,000 consoles, which is very good, but will hardly impact the worldwide marketshare)
* Already around 90 million current gen consoles have been sold. Sure that's a lot of potential owners, but the later the purchase, the less core - and therefore less brand loyal these customers will be. And since Wii is the hottest system it's very likely that the later a PS2 owner switches systems the higher the percentage for a Wii purchase will be.
*Japan is a very bad example since most series in the PS2's sales top 20 have already seen a sequel on PS3, but hardly did anything. They're not struck by a virus, they just don't care about PS3 (nor about 360 and not even that much about Wii).
* Consumer sales doesn't work the way you describe it. No product simply excists for a couple of years before it gets a massive boost. You understand that for the PS3 to come close to Wii it will have to sell MASSIVELY more than the record breaking Wii, which means start selling much more than the PS2 did with less exclusive software and a higher price. I hope you understand that's not going to happen.
