I think that if the Wii does not start getting some serious hardcore gamer support this year, specifically getting those multi-platform games that are HD only, the Wii can never truly be the winner of this generation.
What I mean is that Wii needs games like Dead Space and Fallout 3 and Left4Dead and Far Cry etc.
MadWorld and Conduit are nice, but so far the Wii has only gotten the big franchise multiplatform games (like Madden, Need For Speed, etc). We need more games!
As for first-party game predictions, I'm going to say the big games that come out this year will include:
Punch-Out!! (no kidding)
Sin and Punishment 2
Kid Icarus (as long as Factor 5 is alive)
Pikmin 3
Mario Tennis or Golf or some other sport game that uses MotionPlus
Zelda or Mario might see an announcement at E3 or Nintendo's own conference, but I strongly believe that neither will come out this year.
# of games above 75 on Metacritic (including downloadable):
360: 241 DS: 144
PS3: 152 PSP: 126
Wii: 85
