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mrstickball said:
Jon - But you must look at seasonal trends before arguing what you just said.

Feel free to look at the 360 in Japan. It flies in the face of your argument. It's entirely effected by seasonality, despite the marketshare. It's seeing very similar drops to the PS3 and Wii, despite a much smaller userbase than the PS3 in America.

Feel free to look at the same week in 2008. The X360 had a similar sales base as the PS3 does this week, but it's drop was about 3 times higher for the same week. Even the PS3 last year suffered a higher drop.

So I believe your argument is without merit. Just because it had a smaller % increase from Oct-Dec does not mean that it should have a significantly smaller drop coming out of Christmas. Should it drop slightly less? Sure. But the volume that we're seeing is Atypical.

 

 the 360 in japan is not good to compare anything to. Its numbers are so small % changes can be huge with little actual change. I mean, if it sell 5k less next week... it just lost 50% of its sales... kinda volitile if you know what I mean.

This also has nothing to do with Marketshare, the Cube had the least marketshare, but always got huge holiday boost (at least its first 3 years or so)

The Wii in Japan is actually kinda weird right now, but it seems to be selling like the Gamecube x3.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut