May as well give my prediction: I'll put it around 120k.
@darth: I still think you're overshooting it. tri-Crescendo's best selling game so far is Eternal Sonata (.14m PS360), and the game seemed more traditional than Fragile (safer bet?). ES also scored 4 points higher on famitsu.
Here, some Japan RPG sales on the PS2 that sold below Blue Dragon:
It's silly to judge the Wii based on an unproven, new IP. We don't even know if this game would sell on the PS2. I suggest waiting for the bigger franchises to arrive.