I don't think it Wii is close to peaking. There's still lots of people who havn't even begun to think of getting a Wii but ultimately will. Wii Sports Resort will really help substain sales too.
You can't really compare Wii's 'normal' with PS2's 'normal' since the Wii is attracting a lot of people who never had or never would have gotten a PS2. It's a different beast than anything else out there.
Also the recession may work to boost Wii sales as people, especially families decide there's more value in spend $50 on a game that the whole family can play for weeks than $50 on a movie the family will enjoy for 2 hours. This works for all systems but since Wii appeals to the wives and kids much more than the HD systems it'll benefit the most.
However we may finally see Wiis in stock on a regular basis. Or Nintendo may syphon some supply off for it's long delayed China/India launch (I am correct that it hasn't launched in those markets yet - right? Someone?).
Plus we have little idea what's coming out in the second half of '09 from anyone. It's not like the PS3 where we've been waiting years and years for the games coming out now. On Wii we rarely know more than a few months in advance what's coming even from 3rd parties.
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