| jjseth said: Ummmm... please tell me that you "think" the wii will have a life span of 9 years. I just don't think it will go on much after 2010, maybe 2011 before Nintendo comes out with a new console. If it does have a life span of that long, I just don't think that they will have the sales numbers to justify shipping that many consoles as the tastes of consumers will change with time that the more powerful systems can offer consumers as most consumers will be in the HDTV ownership category and wanting a HD capable system. Just my opinion and not trying to knock the hard work you put into this. The good thing is, that we can see exactly what happens as the time passes. :) |
I definately see your point but I really don't think Nintendo is going to release their next console until the Wii sales are down to "normal" levels. And I think there is a chance the Wii could still be selling very strongly in 5 years. Not as strong as it is now obviously, but stronger than most consoles sell in year 5. As long as they are making huge piles of money on the Wii they can give themselves a bit of time to ensure the next console is perfect and also ensure that it has a good launch lineup before they launch, or they could just stockpile. Whatever they do I don't think Nintendo will feel any pressure to launch early like MS, since MS was trying to capture market share by doing it and it clearly has worked against them as a bit of extra R&D time might have saved them from their RRoD issues.
But more than that, once the Wii2 or whatever it is called comes out it doesn't mean the Wii will stop selling altogether. The PS2 is proof of that. In fact if you think about it, as its price drops in its old age the console and games become better and better values for the people who aren't really into the gaming scene but maybe want to try that thing they have heard so much about for the last 5 years.
I would completely agree its far to early to tell with any accuracy what the numbers will be, but I would say there is a strong possibility that Wii sales could carry on long after the next Nintendo console release. This is due to the proven tendancies of the demographic they are targeting right now, which is to be "late" to "very late" adopters. I won't assert that its a certainty but I do think its worth consideration.
Anyways, it will be interesting watch how close these numbers are over time.
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