| darthdevidem said: @Game_Boy Uh, please, formula's will not apply here, this gen has been so unexpected so far anything can change |
Then how do you know which are underestimated and which are overestimated? Sort of a conflicting message. But I believe it is wrong anyways, and I will explain why....
The idea that anything can change just because the Wii seemed to come out of no where fails to address the situation and instead tries to quantify the situation as just a random roll of the dice that Nintendo was lucky enough to win. This is not the case.
Statistics and formulas work just fine this generation. The only real surprise for anyone was the Wii's success. But since that initial surprise there hasn't been a lot(any?) of new surprises. Everything has pretty much continued unchanged which is exactly why this sort of analysis is valid when viewed in the proper context.
All of the factors that allowed people to be surprised are gone or fading quickly. There was no sales data for people to estimate sales predictions - We have plenty of sales data now. There was the most crucial point in a consoles life, its launch. - Which is done and over with. If anything the situation is stabalizing by the minute and things are becoming more and more predictable with every week of data that comes in. This idea that there could be another shift lingering ahead, while possible, is completely unfounded.
If you want to assert that anything can cause a massive change this generation you should at least make a case for it beyond simply banking on the shoulder-shrugging views of the uninformed consumer.
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
