Can the least selling console be profitable?

[johnlucas]

eViLj00 said: Nintendo can't risk making a console that's not profitable for them... Microsoft and Sony (being ultra RICH compared to Nintendo and much more profitable) CAN risk it.. and that's what Sony's been doing... but you know the saying "What goes around comes around", right? The years Sony took to invest in the PS3 and make it as high-end as possible will ulitmately be good for them.. games and movies will bring back the money they've lost creating the PS3 AND more. But this is something we'll just have to wait and see. Microsoft's Live will give it the money it so desperately wants... That was the case with the Xbox, that would be the case with the 360.

There's a problem with this thinking though. This is not a limitless infinity kind of thing. Money in is not equaling money out as easily as it used to be. I mean here's the generations: Gen 1: PONG Gen 2: Space Invaders/Breakout/Combat/Asteroids/Pitfall I & II/Pac-Man/Defender/Galaga/Donkey Kong/Zaxxon/Robotron 2084 Gen 3: Super Mario Bros. series/Legend of Zelda series/Mega Man series/Contra/Castlevania/Ninja Gaiden/River City Ransom/Clash At Demonhead/Demon Sword Gen 4: Sonic the Hedgehog/Super Mario World & Yoshi's Island/Zelda: Link to the Past/Super Metroid/SNES Final Fantasies/Mega Man X/F-Zero/Starfox/Street Fighter II/Mortal Kombat/Raiden/Bonk/Smash TV/Comix Zone/Ecco the Dolphin/Golden Axe/Altered Beast/Out Of This World/Flashback/Fatal Fury/Samurai Showdown/Chrono Trigger Gen 5: Super Mario 64/Zelda: Ocarina of Time/PS1's Final Fantasies/Goldeneye 007/Perfect Dark/Metal Gear Solid/Cybermorph/Panzer Dragoon/Tomb Raider/Turok series/Sega's Virtua series/THQ-AKI's wrestling games/Gran Turismo/Crash Bandicoot/Grand Theft Auto/Tekken/Resident Evil/Oddworld/Super Smash Bros./Marvel Vs, Capcom/Bushido Blade/Time Crisis Gen 6: Shenmue/Jet Set Radio/Crazy Taxi/Space Channel 5/Soul Edge(Caliber)/Power Stone/Ready 2 Rumble Boxing/Parappa the Rapper/Time Splitters series/PS2 GTA's & clones/Devil May Cry/Tom Clancy's series/PS2's Metal Gear Solids/PS2's Final Fantasies/PS2's Gran Turismos/Jax and Dexter/SOCOM/Halo/Medal of Honor/Midnight Club/Ninja Gaiden Black/Super Smash Bros. Melee/Metroid Prime/Zelda: WindWaker/Resident Evil 4/God of War As each of the representatives from this list got lengthier so too did the production teams which in turn lengthened the green spent in order to create such a team. Games at one time were developed mainly by one person or a few people at best. Not even close anymore as you have to deal with voice actors, graphics proofreading/cleanup, movie cutscenes, marketing/advertising budgets, art direction... It takes so much nowadays to put into most games that it demands strong sales to get money back from effort/energy put in. However as much as the development teams have grown over the decades the range of buying public has more or less stayed just the same. So they're putting more work into getting the same audience. Ever-decreasing returns not reflecting the energy put in to make these works. We still look at 1 million sales as big when they used to do this way back when graphics were more primitive. Less work therefore less budget went into making the game and the returns paid off. If the sales rates matched the development team rates then sales should grow as high as the games are complex. But this is not happening very much. People don't believe it but developer teams are at the breaking point today. The tension point. Something's got to give before this industry loses its power AGAIN. Budgets are getting too big for still receiving the same sales. Sony & Microsoft have moneybags, sure, but those investors are gonna get tired of funding if that doesn't pay off eventually & those moneybags will go with it. Why do giants have to losslead anyway to make money in the business? That's because the business is hard to make money at. Those guys are like on steroids really. If they didn't have that corporate muscle they'd have dried up in this business long ago. And their business models are ultimately fatal to their game sectors and to the industry as a whole. Unlike in Animal Crossing, money DOESN'T grow on trees. Lossleading is a short term strategy to penetrate a field at best. It should NEVER be a way of life. They are not going to be able to pump money into propping up their divisions forever. they are going to have to do business the way it should be and always HAS been done: to MAKE money. To profit. What's the point of selling a kajillion consoles when you only made $1.85. Enough to maybe buy a 20 oz. bottle of soda & a small bag of chips, maybe a pack of flavored cheese crackers. Enough to buy a scratchoff & a roll of Sweettarts. What good is that? When another competitor takes off the 3rd party is not gonna wait for the other guy to catch up. They begin to crossover or wholly take their titles over to the stronger selling system because they are dependent on gamesales to stay intact as a business. If they can make gamesales with less production team costs and more returns, they are going to do it. Potential means a hill of beans. "What have you done for me lately?" as Janet says. Nice theoreticals and stuff to dream over for a wistful day but money talks and BS walks. If the PS3 or XBox 360 doesn't make money as a game system they may not be AROUND as a movie selling system in the future. XBox 1 lost too much money. Too much money. The investors are waiting for the XBox 360 to make up for that tremendous loss. Luckily Microsoft is a multifaceted business in which its game sector is just a part of a larger family. Their OS monopoly will keep them around for a good while longer unless everybody suddenly decides to buck on Vista going for someone else's OS. Sony has more to worry about. The company is more dependent on their game sector than Microsoft is. Unless Sony can reinvigorate their other sectors somehow they are gonna have to pull the PS3 up to speed and quick. The hare wins the race in the console game. All the tortoise can do is maximize its resources while being the underdog. He's not gonna win but he won't overexert himself either in the race. He'll maintain. That was Nintendo the past 11 years consolewise. Tortoise. John Lucas