I truly think PS3 is in some trouble. reasons:
1. Yes, the consoles moved units during the holidays. But we have not seen the bottom of this economy, and while gaming has survived with few scratches so far, they are forcasting double digit U.S. unemployment rates and more bad news. All the consoles sales are going to slow. It has to happen. People ponied up the cash for their kids' Christmas, but it's going to slow.
2. We can see the layoffs starting to hit the dev community. Sony as a corporation is in the worst financial shape of the Big 3. The yen has problems. The price cut is going to be tough - not big enough and not soon enough.
3. BluRay adoption will slow due to the economy as well. If the economy was booming the big 1080p TVs and the fancy version of movies would be flying off shelves. The difference is not enough for Joe Consumer to spend the cash.
4. Don't underestimate the advantage of established install bases. People will buy what their friends have so they can play with them/swap games with them etc. The 360 has that momentum - not to mention the Wii obviously.
5. Upcoming games look awesome! But they are pretty hardcore - Killzone 2 looks amazing, but the hardcore have bought the consoles already. The softcore aren't going to be sucked in by it.
I think Sony might close the gap with 360 a bit by the end of the year, but not what Sony fans want to see. My prediction is that 360 and PS3 sell similar numbers worldwide. And they will both be lower than what 360 did this year, unless we see amazingly crazy surprise games AND bigger than expected price cuts.
Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?
