The Official VGC Thread of Year End 2009 Predictions

[Stever89]

Predictions for end of 2009 (2009 totals):

Wii: 77.9 million (31.85 million)
X360: 37.97 million (10.6 million)
PS3: 30.27 million (10.83 million)
DS: 130.80 million (33.60 million)
PSP: 54.20 million (11.21 million)

Some reasons:

Wii - Who really knows. Nintendo could raise production to 4 million a month in June and completely blow this prediction out of the water. I keep telling myself that I won't underestimate the Wii anymore (who really saw that 2 million November NPD coming?), but I can't get myself to go above 78 million, because I just don't think Nintendo will possibly raise production (or raise it enough) to pass that mark. If we assume production will stay at 2.5 until the new fiscal year, then 3 more months as they prepare to raise it, that means first 6 months will be maxed at 15 million, though will sell less than that as Nintendo stockpiles for holidays 09. Last 6 months, Nintendo will have raised the production to 2.8 million/month max, but still selling out of 95% of all shipments, meaning that by the end of the year, around 31.5 million consoles will be sold in 2009. I just can't see Nintendo risking going higher than that. They will though, just because I bet they won't. lol

X360: Without such a major price cut to boost sales the 2nd half of the year, with less customers in the 199-299 price range because of Nintendo taking most of those sales, and with it going into its 4th year of sales, the X360's sales will decline slightly. Also, since they do not plan to cut the price until Sony does (or at least that what it seems now), and I don't think Sony will cut the price until late spring, possibly not even until late summer or early fall, I could see Microsoft just sitting tight with the decent sales they have, and not try to compete with Nintendo (who can?).

PS3: With many customers in the higher price ranges already declaring their console of choice, and no price cut for a while, the sales in the early of the year will only look similar to sales from early last year. Even with a price cut, I don't see them being able to sell very many more consoles, because of Microsoft and Nintendo taking them before Sony has a chance to get to the "ideal" price point. Third year sales usually are one of the best years, and with a minor price cut of $50 or so late spring, or possibly as late as late summer, sales should improve slightly compared to 2008, and will beat out the 360s for the year (though only by half a million tops). This assumes that FF13 will be released in Japan, otherwise I could see Japan sales falling for the PS3 by as much as 10% (right now I have it increasing by 15%), which would change 2009 sales by about 300k.

DS: DSi should help maintain sales in Japan, but won't be enough to help the American market. Others market will raise again (it's a monster, what else can be said?), so sales will remain flat overall.

PSP: Without any big new colors or models, and without a MH game for Japan, sales will drop in all major markets.