Worst case scenario: What you see is what you get. Sony doesn't have any cannons left to fire, and because of the financial trouble they cannot cut prices. Blu-ray refuses to take off and HD absorbtion-rate slows down. In this case, Playstation 3 sales can only go down, and they'll fall further and further behind Xbox 360, and will be crushed completely this year with no chance of ever stealing second place.
Best case scenario: Sony manages to cut prices despite the economy, Home takes off as the place to be, megaton-coming-this-year exclusives announced, plan to capture casuals and party-people in effect. Playstation 3 finally lives up to its potential in the eyes of the public and all those hesitant in the console war will see it as the place to be. Sales increase and PS3 halves the distance to the Xbox before 2010.
Probable scenario: Sony manages a small pricecut, Blu-ray helps a bit, announced exclusives do well in the eyes of the public, a couple of casual games help its damaged image. PS3 and xbox finishes the year neck-to-neck, the battle swings from side to side, neither coming out on top. - well, this is my probable scenario anyways.
This is somewhat of how I picture 2009.
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