amirnetz said:
Microsoft is building its install bases painstakely and its royalty+subscription business model requires it to keep this install base for the long run.
Microsoft will make sure that nobody presses the "reset" button for next gen installed-base and that the 360 customers will remain with it pretty much forever. This means it will make sure that whatever comes after the 360 will be just a better 360. A model that will share the 360 base-architecture and will maintain "forward compatibility" allowing existing 360 owners to stay with their current consoles and enjoy all the new games .
A Slim model, an "on-line" model with no disks/DVDs, features like 3DTV capabilities, IPTV, DVR and new innovative controllers can all be added to the base 360 architecture without rendering the installed base obsolite. In fact, Microsoft will allow existing 360s to be upgraded to these new features. All the new games will run on all models of the 360.
This "forward compatibility" means that the 360 and its improved variants will be with us for the next 7+ years. Yes, the 360 sold 7 Years from now will look very differently than the one sold today. Just like Windows 95 was very different than Windows Vista. But, it will be a 360 non-the-less.
And this means that 100M units for the lifetime is actually a very reasonable goal.
My prediction:
2009 - 14M units, slim model introduced at same Arcade price point
2010 - 14M units, slim "on-line only" model introduced at $129 price point, Halo 4 ships.
2011 - 20M units, "on-line only" model down to $99, High-end models incorporate 3DTV, IPTV, DVR, Gears 3D ships.
2012 - 20M units, new set of standard controllers (motion based?) introduced
2013 - 15M old on-line only model offered at $60, new on-line only (with new features) is at $133,
2014 - 12M gradual decline due to competitors new gen
2015 - 7M A brand new machine from Microsoft, with new architecture introduced.
So by 2015 the 360 may be well beyond 100M IB, with 50M paying Live subsribers producing around $4B in subscription revenue + $3B in game royalties.
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