theword said:
HappySqurriel said:
Well, if you just look at how hardware has improved over the past several decades a "Wii Like" system that launched in 4 years would probably be able to play a game like Crysis at medium detail at a resolution of 720p with a steady framerate of 60fps ... The reason for this expectation is simple, the top of the line GPU from the end of 2008 will be outperformed by a mid-line GPU at the end of 2009, which will be similar to a low end GPU from 2010, which will be similar to a mid-level laptop GPU in 2011, and a low-level laptop GPU in 2012.
Edit: I think you should expect the console manufacturers to all look for more powerful hardware than this, but I wouldn't expect them to really be pushing the limits like Sony or Microsoft did in this generation.
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There are a number of risks that MS and Sony will need to carefully weight if they choose to play safe and not push performance limits:
1) Nintendo may sneak up and push performance limit this time.
This is a disaster for both MS and Sony because the Wii brand is already as formidable as it is. If Wii3 is advertised as the most powerful machine along with all the other things associate with the previous Wiis, how will MS and Sony to make their system look good? The one saving grace for MS and Sony is that if Nintendo plan to push limit, they will know about it well in advance because Nintendo will have to contract outsiders to design the gut of the machine for them. In this industry if you don't keep your design in house, everyone else will find out.
2) Either MS or Sony still want to push limit, thereby forcing the other to keep up.
3) It won't be easy to invent something that will "wow" people like the Wiimote
If MS or Sony don't push the limit, they will need to invent something that will make consumer say ah, that's awesome. I got to have it. If they do a Wii controler, it won't have the same effect. It has been done already. It had lost its wow factor. Idealy they need something that take people attention away from Nintendo. And they can not do that if they just copy Nintendo.
Some people may argue what Nintendo did was really pushing the limit of user interaction. So if MS and Sony want to compete in the same way, they will need to push this type of limit much further.
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