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Well it's tough to compare DVD to Blu Ray directly. If you're going by units sold your not adressing the significant cost differential between the two formats. If you go by revenue it doesn't show how much of an uphill clime BR has to penetrating homes that overwhelmingly use DVD.

I think you go by units but there's no perfect way to measure it. There won't be one significant point where we can definatively say blue ray has captured 50% of the market. Sony and BR forces will use the numbers that skew their way, while their detractors will use numbers that skew the other way.