Well if April is the month the PS3 gets its price cut (which i cant see happening) then that is 4 months of the 360 outselling the PS3 over 2 to 1. So if each week it sells 200k a week more then the PS3 (it is over 300k currently) then that would mean by April the 360 will have a minimum gap of 800k a month meaning another 2.4m gap by april 1st. Making the gap by april 1st at least 10m units. If we look at sales figures month to month over year to year the 360 has increased sales by well over 50% with some months even at 100%. While the PS3 is down a lot. If we take the % and apply them to last years figures we see last year for the same period of 1st jan to 1st april the PS3 sold 1.6m and the 360 sold 1.5m. So if we assume the PS3 sales remain flat at best and the 360 sales increase by 50% gives us PS3 sales of 1.6m and 360 sales of 3m. Meaning at that point the 360 will have a 10m gap over the PS3.
So my maximum gap is 10m units between the two consoles.
After april we will see a PS3 price cut of about $50, that will give the console an average boost to get on par with the 360 sales but it wont over take it. It would need at bare minimum a $100 price cut to do that and that wont happen, that would mean Sony lose $150 on every PS3 sold and that just is not going to happen as much as fanboys hope it does.
So my minimum gap is 9m simply because the PS3 price cut is not that big a price cut and they will probably do the cut in the shape of a different SKU. They will be cutting in a poor sales period so they will be neck and neck with the PS3 taking the lead for a month or two to gain 1m units back. But then we will enter the last few months of 09 and Microsoft will announce their new games and probably a new price cut for the 360 as they are doing something sony are not which is making a profit.
Right now MS have Sony by their balls, whatever Sony do MS can equal it. The worst thing that has gone against Sony is they have the most expensive console in a financial meltdown. Even if you take off $100 that will remain the same.
09 will be the same as 08 and 07, 360 and PS3 nowhere near the Wii.
