I don't see the lead getting any bigger than 10 million for Microsoft at best because I don't expect that games like Alan Wake and Halo Wars are really going to move that many more consoles than what they already have out there in relation to what the PS3 has out there. It was said earlier that Gears 2 didn't move that many consoles. However, I think it probably did. It has sold at least 3.77 million copies more than any other holiday period release and that was coupled with the 360's price cut. On the other hand, I don't expect Gears to keep selling in huge numbers into the new year. Sure it will pass 5 million and mybe even get up to 6, 7, or even 8 million in the long run. But as months go by it will have a smaller effect on the big picture, and I don't expect any of the 360's 09 titles to be as big.
Halo Wars will sell primarily to Halo fans but it won't move that many new 360's out of stores and Alan Wake is going to be the next Ninja Gaiden II, Too Human, or even Alone in the Dark imho. In a best case scenario for Microsoft though, if Star Ocean comes out with mega review scores and wins over fans throughout the world or if Rare or one of Microsoft's other internal studios comes out with a title with mass appeal ie. Donkey Kong Country on the snes appeal, then of course the number would be bigger in the 360's favor.
But the same thing could happen on PS3. What happens if someone like Ellen starts saying Afrika, for example, on PS3 is one of the most awesome things ever like she did with Wii Fit, then you would see an unexpected boost in PS3 sales.
And for the people saying the PS3 is going to just up and die. I don't think that any console with two Final Fantasy games on the way, popular series like Uncharted and God of War having new scheduled titles to appear in the next year or so, and a mega seller like Gran Turismo 5 on the way has ever just curled into a ball and died.
Heavens to Murgatoids.
