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dbot said:

HD DVD did not provide enough of an improvement over DVD to gain widespread studio support.

There is no other optical disc based tech currently in development that has a chance to supercede Blu-ray.

The public does seem to care.  The Blu-ray adoption rate is growing as seen by recent news releases.

Streaming media services face a host of issues that will prevent it from being a mainstream solution for sometime.

  • Streaming providers are the last in line to license content.  That is why their libraries are poor at best.
  • Streaming/Digital Distribution currently accounts for .06% of a typical movie studios revenue.
  • The Internet infrastructure does not have the bandwidth required to support the number of unicast connections that would be required to host streaming as a mainstream solution.
  • The current 4 bar connection(best speed available) for Netflix streaming requires a 3 Mbps downstream connection.  This will give you a 720x480i encoded at a 3mbps bitrate.  The current Blu-ray movie will give you a 1920x1080p encoded at a 40mbps bitrate. 

 

HD DVD is dead but when it was alive it was more than a match for Blu Ray when it came to showing movies in fact it was ready. The studios as I stated wanted the extra DRM offered which the public will resist so in the long run as I originally suggested they shot themselves in the foot and delayed the introduction of the HD format on a disc in pursuit of the mightly dollar.

All these figures of hundreds of per cent increases on adoption are based on low initial values hence why they may appear high. For them to actually make a difference it would need to be more mainstream. Comparisons with DVD adoption do not wash because ultimately the end users does not see a big enough need when compared to DVD replacing Tape. a Disc replacing a Disc does not cut it. At its current rate of adoption it will be your children who will see it finally become mainstream.

Again as I originally stated the technology is already on the way which will further impede the Blu Ray progress. If you think that the same people who could not give a hoot about Blu Ray care about 720p or 1080p you would also be wrong. The general public are already getting to grips with on demand services and as the internet services improve so will the take up it may even be the reason these services are improved. In the UK as I am sure most of the western world is now offering increasing HD content via cable, Satelite and ultimately over the air. These services will no doubt be 720p and no doubt most folk will lap it up.

I would not be suprised if DVD sales of Mamma Mia in the UK outsold all Blu Ray sales in the UK. That is the problem and the hill Blu Ray has climb.

 



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

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