| gavind5uk said: The DVD->BD evolution will be hardly different from the VHS->DVD one, now that the studios have backed BD its just a matter of time before it takes a 50+% share. |
It isn't as simple as you think: The biggest difference was that the replication costs for VHS were huge compared to the costs to produce a DVD! The end of the VHS wasn't even planned by the majors instead the stores replaced more and more the VHS Tapes with DVDs, that they were able to sell cheaper, with a higher profit, while they needed less space.
The problem for the BluRay is: It will always be more expensive to produce a BluRay than a DVD,even if the BluRay replication one day meets the DVD costs, simply due to more and higher licence fees.
The BluRay has the problem that it will have to convince the customers that BluRay alsways offers additional value, so that the medium is worth the additional costs. This is the big problem. When I look at some people they would even buy the cheaper medium even if the cost difference would be as low as 50 cents...
BluRay is on the way to establish itself as a high quality medium, but if this medium will ever replace the DVD on the mass market is an entirely different basket.
