Will the PS3 EVER reach 40 million?

[Final-Fan]

BTFeather55 said:

Final-Fan said:

BTFeather55 said:
Yes, but Resistance II and LBP are no God of War, Gran Turismo, and at least two exclusive Final Fantasy games.  Uncharted has already proven that it is a series that can sell multiple millions of units and MGS 4 shows that exclusive games in established franchises can have good sales on the PS3.  MGS 4 has still sold more units than Gears II.  Final Fantasy XIII will move an additional 1 to 2 million PS3 units in Japan at launch and so will FF Versus XIII.  Plus, the PS3 is outselling the 360 by 3 times as many units in Japan as the 360 a trend which will continue for the rest of this gen and at the very least provide for an adequately long life for the PS3 due to favorable reception in the Asian market.

Not according to VG Chartz.

It's not outselling the 360 as much as it used to, but more importantly, beating the 360 in Japan is like winning the Special Olympics.

The PS3 is a decent 2nd place in Japan -- it might end up with sales in Japan similar to the N64 (5.55m) -- but is that really as good as you're saying?  Second place in Japan is usually WAY second.

It will do much better in Japan than the N64.  That is a given considering that the PS3 is going to have two exclusive Final Fantasies in that territory while the N64 didn't even have one.

Yeah, FFXIII twice.  Final Fantasy is huge in Japan, and believe me I'm not one to underestimate the franchise, but it's not going to singlehandedly put rocket boosters on the console for the whole generation.  We'll see an absolutely massive spike when the games hit, of course, and let's even suppose you get your 1-2 million.  That would be a mind-boggling success given the fact that it would be a couple of games singlehandedly increasing the user base in Japan by up to 50% or more.  If that happens, I guess you're right that it'll do better than the N64, and Saturn too, making it the most successful second place console ever in Japan not counting handhelds (the PSP). 

But please define "much" better because I still think you're being too optimistic even if your FFXIII dream comes true.  Which it won't:  Crisis Core sold 490k units week one and we can see a boost of 70k at most in the corresponding week of PSP sales.  The PSP-2000 was released there the very next week which screws things up somewhat but I think we can agree that the vast majority of people buying a console for a game will do it in the first week.  Anyway, so for every SEVEN people who bought the game, only ONE person bought the console in order to be able to play it.  Even if FFXIII sells consoles at TWICE the ratio, there aren't going to even be 4.5 million PS3s in Japan by the time it comes out -- and not every single PS3 owner is going to buy it.  Not even in Japan.