Will the PS3 EVER reach 40 million?

[Final-Fan]

BTFeather55 said:

Final-Fan said:

BTFeather55 said:

Final-Fan said:

BTFeather55 said:

BTFeather55 said:
In another post, I said it was unlikely that the Nextbox would be coming out in 2009,  I also said it would be surprising if it comes out any later than 2010.  Of course until GDC 2009 and E3 2009 roll around without a NB announcement, then the four year console notion may be discredited but not disproven.  There is a difference.

Microsoft is much more likely to try to release a new system with an IP like Gears 3 than Forza.  I'm sure Epic and Microsoft won't have much trouble reaching an agreement on a third game in the series considering the first one has already sold 5 million copies and the second one is heading towards that number as well.  Forza has only sold a little over 4 million copies and it won't reach 5 million before Gears II does even though it was released quit a bit longer ago.

There is evidence that Microsoft has been in the planning stages of the next xbox for quite a while.  In '08 more than a couple of hints were released about it and even the announcement that one of its games was already in development.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3165235
http://gizmodo.com/5063680/next-xbox-will-upgrade-xbox-360-games-to-look-amazing-use-new-controller-features

Well of course all 3 console makers are at some point in the planning stages.  But that doesn't say much about the timeline on the console's release, not even having at least one game in development.

Earlier, I believe you said that the next Xbox would come out at such and such a time because of the timing with the next Gears of War game.  But although these big exclusives are indeed juggernauts, they are not in fact able to push around console launches.  If Gears of War 3 is considered a critical asset to the next Xbox's launch window, it can get delayed more easily than MS will revise its preferred launch timing.

Microsoft's preferred launch timing is November 2010.  The longest that the delay between Gears 2 and 3 is will be 3 years much as it was between Halo 2 and 3 giving Microsoft a year to get the Nextbox's price point down to a more consumer friendly one while keeping the clamor for Gears 3 as high as it has been built.  History in this industry tends to repeat itself.

What history are you referring to?  Halo 3 was two years after the 360 launch, and Halo was not a known franchise at the Xbox launch.

Why do you say that 2010 is the preferred launch year?  All I can concentrate on is Arthur C. Clarke references.

Actually, Halo was a very well known franchise at its launch.  The same issue of Next Generation magazine which had the announcement of the original xbox console also had an article that listed The Top 25 Games that would have the potential to be the next big franchises in gaming and Halo was listed prominently.  This was when Halo was still thought to be a PC game and no one had any idea that it was going to be an xbox game.

Because of Gears of War 3.  Gears 2 launched 2 years after the original, so if you expect there to be two years between Gears 2 and 3, then you would expect Gears 3 to come out in November of 2010.  However, if MS were to follow a Halo 3 type pattern for the next xbox, then Gears 3 could be coming out in 2011 with the next xbox launching a year earlier as they did with the 360 so that it could gain a bit of marketshare with some new franchises while they tried to get the price down to a more consumer friendly one with the release of Halo 3 in 2007.  I don't think Gears 3 will be coming out as late as 2012 because the three years between the three Halo games gave Gears enough time to come along and still a bit of that series thunder nor to I expect a Gears 4 to be the big launch game of the NextBox because there is traditionally a bit of burnout in series when they go beyond trilogy format.  Examples of this burnout include Star Wars movies past the third one, original Batman series movies past the third one,  and in gaming Splinter Cell and Tomb Raider both lost a bit of momentum trying to extend their series past three games.  Three is still the magic number for franchise length across most media.

I'm not saying Halo wasn't on the radar; but it wasn't an extablished franchise.  Halo 1 wasn't big like Halo 2 or 3; same with Gears of War, Uncharted, etc. etc.

What if Gears 3 came out in 2010 and Gears 4 came out in 2012 as a launch game with the new console?  I understand what you're saying about the trilogy thing, and there are a lot of good examples, but on the other hand it's not as bad as you think.  Star Wars doesn't count because the other movies are so separated from the originals.  They didn't keep making them.  IMO Batman went downhill after 2 movies, not 3.  I don't know as much about Splinter Cell or Tomb Raider. 

And there are many examples of franchises that don't go downhill after 3.  Super Mario World.  Resident Evil 4.  (OK, that's cheating, but still.)  Zelda (Link's Awakening).  Final Fantasy IV.  Mario Kart Wii.  (Some people would disagree -- wrong people.)