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40 million should definitely be reached. I expect somewhere around 45-50 million Lifetime.

End 2008: 19 million
End 2009: 29 million (enough big games to keep selling at current rate)
End 2010: 38 million (GT5, FFXIII)
End 2011: 44 million (Here's where the new consoles arrive)
Lifetime: 45-50 million