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I am certain (yes CERTAIN) the PS3 will have a price cut in Japan before Q3. There are many hardcore gamers in Japan and they get games first day, FFXIII releases this year with SF4 and Yakuza 3 next month. Add on RE5 as well and GT5 that is some serious amount of software sales.

Japan would hit Sony the least in terms of losing another $100 because it is the smallest region but it will give them massive gains thanks to such strong software sales coming this year.