The only contentious point I see is the predicted date of October for a price cut. I think the 45nm cell/55nm rsx would be in production before then or even an emergence of a 'slim' model allowing greater cost savings, which should be passed onto the consumer asap.
If they wait until October and keep the status quo, I can see the 360 averaging 60k more per week (not unreasonable, considering the 300-400k differences this holiday) - so by october (44 weeks) x 60k = 2.64million. That would be ~10.5 million lead that the 360 has over the PS3, which would probably cost Sony more than cutting the price with the loss of third party support. The Valhalla chipset would probably be ready for production in the 360 by that timeframe as well so price cuts in tandem = status quo remains unchanged.
So I'm predicting a price cut before October and be completely unoriginal and go with the 'leaked' report and Pachter and say March-April.
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