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This will be the first thing that the Wii passing the PS2 in, the Wii like the DS tends to sell come games VERY well. I do not see the Wii ever catching the PS2 in the 1 million seller group or the 2 million sellers group.

Right now the Wii has -

  1. WiiSports (complain about Bundling if you want, it has 3.4 million alone in Japan where it is not)
  2. WiiPlay
  3. WiiFit
  4. MKWii
  5. SSBB
  6. SMG
  7. M&S
  8. Zelda: TP
  9. Mario Party 8

The only 2 titles now release with a VERY good shot of reaching 5 million is

  1. WiiMusic (almost a sure thing)
  2. Animal Crossing- has a very good Chance

Ok so that would put us at 11, 1 short.

WiiSports resorts is a sure 5 million seller (prolly a sure 10 million seller with WiiMotion+ bundled)

So there we have it, that should equal the PS2, possibly by this time next year.

Here is a list of game with a chance, not necesarily a good one, some are not annoucnce but we know they are coming.

  1. GH:III (needs like 1.2 million... not completly impossible... GH2 sold over 500k on the 360 in 08... who knows?)
  2. GH: WT tracking ahead of 3 so far, I'd give it 25% chance
  3. Zelda: Wii (TP made it, and this one will be launching on a massive userbase with lot of hype 90% chance)
  4. SMG 2 (basically for sure it will make 5 mil)
  5. Mario Party 9 (might not do as well as 8, but 5 mil is not a reach... 60% chance)
  6. BBA: Wii  (25% chance, it does just keep on selling...)
  7. the conduit (5% chance.... but that is a chance right!! lol... only way this happens is if it REALLY catches on)
  8. DQ10 (3.5 million or so in Japan is a lock, Nintendo is going to market it to the west fot SE, if they suceed. 5 mil for sure)
  9. Link's Crossbow Training (it is bundled, well see. If FPS games catch on it will move a bit better)
  10. Carnivore Games (lol, I meant to do that, 2.2 mil away, I hope not, but 50/50 chance...)
  11. KH3 (the PS2 one sold 5 mil, and Wii + Disney + Actual Quality = $$$$$)
  12.  12-15 leaving room for future unancounce Wii series games.... lol

 

OKAY! You get the idea, even if 1/3 of these titles make it the Wii is bound to smash this PS2 record to bits.

Just for reference here is the PS2 5 million seller (by VGC data of course)

  1. GTA:SA
  2. GTA:VC
  3. GTA3
  4. GT3
  5. GT4
  6. FFX
  7. KH
  8. NFS: Underground
  9. NFS: Underground 2
  10. FFXII
  11. FFX-2
  12. MGS2

to be fair, crash: wrath of cortex did sell 4.97... lol....



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut