What the data suggests is what Nintendo said long ago: That, at the moment, only 10% of Wii owners did not own a console last gen. Therefore, 10% of Wii owners are either lapsed gamers or non-gamers.
What Microsoft is assuming is that, if New Gamers are not buying the Wii in droves (yet, because it is still very supply constrained) then it MUST be only Gamecube owners purchasing the Wii. He doesn't believe that previous PS2/Xbox owners will purchase the Wii.
Just from the polls we have had on VGchartz, less than 50% of Wii owners owned a GC last generation(myself included). However, it also supports the data, because only around 5-10% were lapsed gamers (Most of them PC only gamers before).







