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.jayderyu on 30 December 2008
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Just for my personal fun I'm not going to read the 6 pages already accumlated. I'm going to go over this myself for my entertainement.   

lanjiaona said:

For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

  • Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.

Your right all bubbles that continue to expand burst. Your assuming though that the bubble in question is known. No one thought that World of Warcraft could exceed Ever Quest user count. Not only did WoW exceed it. WoW blew past Ever Quest. We now assume that WoW is the max of the bubble, but it's not. The true is the same for the Wii. Your assuming that the market is not much bigger than last gen PS2+GC+Xbox. The truth is the market is much bigger.

 

  • The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.

Sigh, this is one of the most stupidist arguments I have ever heard and keep on hearing. HDTV is a slow market shift. It is inevitble that the market will become fully HDTV. It's not an option. The thing is that the technophile that insists on the most HD Console to go with his HDTV has well long gone and was as usual far upstream and SMALL. At this point and time and for the last few years HDTV sales do not represent any impact on the average consumer to chose an HD console becuase of their HD tv. Your argument only points out you are one of the HD technophiles.

 

  • The Xbox 360 is cheaper.

Once again this comes out to the concept of what is more valueable to an individual. If I were to sell a scoop of Rocky road for $2 and bubble gum for 1 dollar. What sells more? I know way to many people who don't in fact like bubble gum and will pay in cost perspective the rock road for more money. This range however does have a limit. If I sold the Rocky Road for $10 and the Licorious for $1 that in by no means will drasticly increase Licorious sales due the fact that people don't want licorious. Rocky Road also won't sell because it's too expensive for 1 scoop of icecream.

 

  • The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.

Once again you showing more of the technophile upstream mentality. Everyone is like you and will eventually become you. This is by no means true. It is more a derangement on your thinking patter that this is true. The 360 is indead more multi feature open and deeper in regards to it's online. However as pointed out by the the idea of the expanded bubble that WoW proves more features do not necessarly produce a more interesting product. It's the core features that matter and the Wii is right now proving that easy accasiblity(WoW vs EQ) is more important. There is also image. 360 is a core machine with the average image of some 16-25 male hunched over sitting in front of the TV. The Wii image while not apealing to the core(you) is more appealing to the expanded audiance.

 

  • The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovel ware. And game consoles are for playing games.

See above. Your a technophile that values games your way. Who is showing that you can't and don't understand someone elses motives.

 

  • Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.

See above. The value of software is indivual. The new lines appeal much like Bejeweled to a larger audiance. If you consider Bejeweled a shovel ware game. then your definition of a food game is of a small pallette.

 

  • The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.

You don't bother to do research nor understand sales, history, market. I suggest you bother to research what made Sony and MS great. You may find that what they did is similiar to what Nintendo is doing now. If you make a technophile appealing game and release it on Wii + technophile machine. Then most sales will be on the technophile machine. If you make a technophile game on just the Wii then the technophiles + expanded audiance will buy it on the Wii. Why becuase the technophiles are core gamers and the technophile game would only be a core game. Core gamers in truth will care more about playing where the lions share of core games are.

 

  • Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.

Yawn. The old style radio companies said the same thing about Sony back in the day when Sony was reaking massive profits in. Why? becuase Sony used the micro transistor to produce a much smaller, convient, cheaper radio. The sound was nowhere as good, but is appealed and was within the price range of the average consumer. The other radio companies called things like the walkman a toy.

 

  • Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.

This is really wierd logic. In a case where money belts are tightening people will spend their money on what they value most in regards to their interests. Yes it can give the 360 an edge, but that then comes up to the icecream example again.

 

  • Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

And the 360 and PS3 haven't? The fact that their sales rate are not on average as high as last your condeming the Wii?

So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.

So there we have it. Plenty of reasoning that the OP must eventually face the inevitable. He is a core gamer/technophile upstream consumer. Who doesn't understand the downstream market.

That was fun :) yes yes, it's all been mentioned before, but it's good to get it off the chest :)

 

 



Squilliam: On Vgcharts its a commonly accepted practice to twist the bounds of plausibility in order to support your argument or agenda so I think its pretty cool that this gives me the precedent to say whatever I damn well please.