Upcoming PS3 exclusives which you think will hit 3M LTD?

[Sullla]

This should be a fun thread to bump later on, so let's make some predictions...

A lot of people are doing the classic forum thing of posting what they want to see happen, rather than stopping to think about sales. I'm looking at the sales of PS3 exclusives in the game database, and truth to tell, they're not particularly impressive. Only TWO exclusives have actually sold 3m copies, and both benefitted from unusual circumstances. Motorstorm was heavily, heavily bundled, while Resistance was helped by being the only desirable launch title. The next two exclusives (Grant Turismo Prologue at 2.60m and Uncharted at 2.39m) were both heavily bundled as well. So the PS3 doesn't exactly have a great track record of selling exclusive software right now...

Gran Turismo 5 will easily sell 3m copies. Nothing more to be said on that.

I think God of War has the best chance out of the other games to hit 3m. All it has to do is equal the success of its two predecessors, and Uncharted/Devil May Cry has shown that those type of action games can do well with the PS3. I also think that God of War has a strong chance of being the big holiday game for Sony at the end of 2009, and receiving lots of advertising/bundling/etc. to help out. Probably about an 80% chance this game makes it.

Killzone 2 is getting a ton of hype right now, but I don't think this game will get anywhere close to 3m sold. It's practically a new IP given how badly the previous game did, it doesn't come from a top development team, it's releasing in a slow period of the year, and Resistance 2 has been struggling enormously as the big holiday FPS. There's really no evidence that this game will be a huge hit, beyond the hopes of online fanboys. Outside chance, not likely though - would need massive bundling help.

Uncharted wouldn't be anywhere close to its current sales without gigantic bundling help, so I'm not exactly going out on a limb here by saying its sequel probably won't hit 3m either. Plus, there's no guarantee this game will release any time soon.

Final Fantasy Versus is kinda pointless to speculate over, since we've never seen so much as a single non-CGI screenshot of this game, and it assuredly won't be releasing until late 2010 at the very earliest. Anyone holding out hope for this game right now is really grasping at straws.

The other games are simply too small and/or niche to come anywhere close. (They might be really good games, but they won't sell 3m copies.) So I would say one definite game, one likely, and a few longshot titles overall. Gran Turismo 5 is overwhelmingly the biggest game on the horizon for the PS3 right now. Sony desperately needs this game out in time for the 2009 holiday season.