A game like Conduit is fine. Those guys, and all of us know, the game will reach more than one million sales... and if they just put out one commercial... Also, 500k being considered a success is completely based on the game.
For example, a game like, Blast Works reaching 500k is successful. A game like GTA IV only getting 500k would be a massve failure. So keep in mind that there is no decisive answer, just a game by game basis.
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