Will the PS3 fall below 15% marketshare in Americas in 2009?

[misterd]

Absolute worst case scenario for Sony:

Let's assume the PS3 market bottoms out and does horribly - say 5m or so in sales.

Let's assume the 360 has its strongest year at 15m.

And the Wii a terrific year with 35m.

The final totals:

PS3: 25m
360: 40m
Wii: 80m

The PS3 still has 17% of the market share, and that's under what I consider to be unrealistic conditions.