It is inevitable that the Wii will see lower sales than it has seen over 2008 but that doesn't mean that lower sales are in its immediate future ...
Last year at about this time people were predicting that the Wii was going to struggle in 2009 because big games (like Grand Theft Auto and Metal Gear Solid) were going to convince the typical gamer that the HD consoles were better gaming systems than the Wii; as we all know, this year the Wii sold about 25 Million consoles and the HD consoles sold about 21 Million (combined).
Now, lets look forward to 2009 ... Compared to how the 2008 line-up looked in December 2007, and how the 2007 line-up looked in December of 2006, the 2009 third party line-up for the Wii looks like its best ever while the line-up for the HD consoles looks like their weakest line-ups ever. If 2009 plays out in a similar fashion to how previous years have in this generation (and the Wii's line-up grows from new announcements, and the HD consoles are plagued with delays and exclusive games becomming multiplatform) it is quite possible that the Wii's third party line-up could actually be similar or better than the HD console's third party line-up. Now, I'm not going to argue that the Wii will have a better line-up than the HD consoles, but it seems remarkably foolish to predict that the Wii will fade away and the HD consoles will rise when the quality of library for the Wii compared to the HD consoles will be its strongest ever.
